Will colleges change their admission decision if my CIE predicted grade was a A* but I got a A in my externals in one of my subjects?
No. Maybe if you got straight Cs or arrested otherwise colleges rarely change their admission decision. An A* to A is fine, but an A* to B is not fine. Similarly a 7 to a 6 in IB is ok, but 7 to 5 isn’t.
What if I was predicted 4 A* and end up with 2 As and 2Bs (Columbia college)?
Likely fine, but they’ll be very unlikely to straight rescind you - the most realistic ‘bad case’ would be them asking you to write a letter explaining the drop in grades. If you have a good reason, then you’ll be fine. I know someone who dropped 44 -> 32 points in IB and while Stanford asked him to write a letter explaining this massive fall, was still able to matriculate.
When Jeffrey says ‘not fine’, it doesn’t mean it’s the end of the world - it means they might ask you to explain your drop. A C could be grounds for further action however (I’ve actually seen this happen over the last week with a kid in my admitted cohort).
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Thankyou! What did they do to the person in your cohort? At what point would I be put on academic probation or rescinded?
Made her write a letter about why they should still accept her. Really hard to say - you can only wait and see, it depends on school as much as anything. I’d be 90% sure you’re fine.